Why E3 should be held every four years

But by changing gears and making it the biggest show in the video game industry every four years, E3 can suddenly become relevant again. It can go back to the big spectacle that it once was and make it clear to everyone that when it’s time for E3, it’s time for the big three and developers to totally blow you away with upcoming releases and consoles.

At the 2005 E3, Microsoft unveiled the
Xbox 360, Sony unveiled the Playstation 3, and Nintendo showed off the GameBoy Micro and the Revolution (later renamed the
Wii). In 2001, Nintendo made its first unveiling of the Gamecube and Microsoft made its first major showing with a full lineup of first-gen Xbox games. In 1997, Metal Gear Solid was first unveiled, along with a slew of major franchises, including Unreal and Half-Life

This scheme would also probably appeal to Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft, which have consistently said that the return on investment from these major announcements simply isn’t up-to-par and it doesn’t make sense to spend all that money on something that doesn’t bear any fruit.

Do you see what I’m getting at here? Sure, some major game releases were made in other years not mentioned above and those three years weren’t the only periods that made E3 special, but they follow a certain trend. Generally speaking, big stuff happens every four years and in-between, very little is revealed.

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E3 should be like the Olympics and presidential elections. That’s right — it shouldn’t be a yearly show where press is ushered around San Francisco and made to listen to barely entertaining conferences from companies that like to massage their egos and try to show how compelling their products are. Instead, E3 should be the gaming event every four years that highlights the major developments in the gaming space and leaves the extra garbage to shows like the Tokyo Game Show or the Game Developers’ Conference.

Unless it’s a year where new consoles will be released or a major title will be announced, E3 is boring. How many times do we go to E3 hoping Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo will announce something major, only to find out that they want to talk about sales, revenue models, and a handful of games that don’t matter nearly as much as they want us to believe? Lately, it has happened more times than we want to admit.

And by making E3 follow a four-year schedule, it’ll quickly become the most important conference in the industry.

Unfortunately, those events are few and far between.

I realize this idea is radical and it runs directly opposite to the way things have always been done in the video game industry, but if you’re a dying conference, don’t you think it’s time you think outside the box?

Now, granted, developers may need to change their cycles to coincide with this new scheme, but don’t you think it’ll happen? When Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo announce new consoles, every developer in the business wants to be at E3 because those are the conferences that get the most play in the media. And by spacing E3 out in such a way as to allow the first-parties to announce major console upgrades or new consoles altogether, it makes E3 the place to be every four years.

But for those years where new consoles are being announced, along with major new franchises or updates to big-time games, E3 is a spectacle that outshines all its competitors and makes for an extremely compelling week.

E3 is, well, dead. But by changing the way things are done and moving to a time scheme that allows it to lick its wounds in-between those years when it holds a conference, I really believe E3 can be turned into something major again.

Part of that reason is because E3 is dominated by the big three: Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo. And when those three companies don’t have anything major to announce, the show is (pretty much) a waste of time.

Holding a major E3 every four years means that the Tokyo Game Show can bear the burden of holding crappy shows every year and frees up E3 to be the biggest and best video game conference on the planet.

Because of that, we need to come to the realization that the big three only really have big things to announce every few years and generally, those announcements revolve around the announcement of new consoles, which, contrary to Sony’s “10-year life cycle”, generally hit store shelves every four to six years.

Now I know this may sound drastic and surely some of you are saying that I’ve lost it, but hear me out. On this week’s TWiT, I first mentioned this theory to my fellow panelists, Leo Laporte, Veronica Belmont, and Major Nelson. And due to the immense response from the TWiT faithful, I felt I needed to expound on my theory a bit more and explain why E3, in its current state, is quickly becoming irrelevant and is in desperate need of a revival.

With that in mind, I don’t see a reason for E3 to happen every year. If it stays on its current course, it’ll continue to succumb to irrelevance and eventually, the press and everyone else will officially lose interest. And to make matters worse, it’s being out-shined by GDC and TGS, which makes it look like the “extra” show in July.

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Visual voice mail comes to the Voyager

(Credit:
Verizon Wireless)

The LG Voyager gets visual voice mail.

(Credit:
Verizon Wireless)

If you want this new visual voice mail feature, you’ll have to go to Messaging on your handset, select the Visual Voice Mail link, launch it, enter your voice mail password, and then follow the prompts to subscribe to visual voice mail (it’s a free subscription). Existing Voyager customers can bring their device to a local Verizon store to get the upgrade, or you can download it directly by visiting this page. Here’s hoping that Verizon adds this visual voice mail feature to other phones in its lineup.

Each voice mail will have details, like the number or name of the caller, the day, date, and time of the message, the message length, and when the message will expire. You can then also choose to call back or text the contact. You can even choose to send a voice mail back to the person, as long as he or she is a Verizon Wireless customer.

Update: Apparently Verizon took down the download page, and as of 4:27 pm PDT Friday, we’re not able to find the application by searching through the directory. However, I did find this cached page, which might work. We’ll check back to see if the download page emerges again.

Verizon customers can send each other voice mail messages.

As with the other visual voice mail systems, the Voyager’s version will allow customers to listen to voice mail messages in any order; plus you’ll have the ability to erase and archive messages directly from the Voyager’s touch-screen interface. You will also be able to access the voice mail with a single button, and get instant playback.

The Apple iPhone was the first to get it, then the Samsung Instinct, and now it’s the LG Voyager’s turn to get visual voice mail. Yes, as of Friday, all LG Voyager customers can get a free download to their phone that will add visual voice mail capability.

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Back to the future for MySQL

The question, however, remains for all open-source projects: Is it fair or productive to close off the code after open source has made it popular?

commentary

Commercializing open source is a tricky balancing act, as open-source Funambol’s name suggests (It means “tightrope walker”). For MySQL, it’s a “tightrope” it has been walking for more than 10 years, which decade has seen the company on both sides of the open source/proprietary divide.

Remember that Monty [co-founder of MySQL] chose to go open source only after the world totally ignored his work. There is a real value that goes along with being open source that lends itself well to adoption. If you have to pay, then that will deter adoption of immature products in ways that it won’t with free products.

This is the crux of the MySQL/Sun commercialization problem: They can’t make the enterprise version diverge or they lose the adoption benefit, and enterprise sales are still long, high ceremony and costly.

Ultimately, the only thing we know is that Marten, Monty, Zack, and team mean well and generally do well. They seem to balance better than most.

So for those of us that get caught up in MySQL’s decision to keep some extensions closed to paid subscribers, perhaps a refresher course in MySQL history will make it seem a bit less shocking. (Also be sure to check out the early 2001 brouhaha over trademark violations surrounding MySQL.org. Fascinating stuff.)

It’s not as if the grass is brilliantly green on the commercialization side of the fence, either, as my friend goes on to point out:

As I’m occasionally reminded, MySQL didn’t start out as open source. In fact, MySQL’s original license was very similar to what it is trying to achieve today: Free for noncommercial use, but not-so-free for commercial use. It didn’t decide to go open source (GPL) until 1999.

With that said, there’s an ongoing tension between commercialization and adoption that MySQL (and all commercial open-source projects) have to manage. As a friend noted in an email to me yesterday:

Perhaps a little empathy, rather than blame, is therefore in order for the MySQL management team as they try to figure out how to trade in some of MySQL’s popularity for a bit more cash. It’s a fair desire but it’s by no means obvious that closing off some extensions will accomplish this. The MySQL team is experimenting, as they’ve said. Let’s cut them a little slack (while still remaining open-mouthed and open-minded).

His take on Monty’s reasoning is a bit strong, and I don’t agree that MySQL had been ignored, but still he has a point: Open sourcing one’s code can lead to far greater adoption in a short period of time than proprietary source.

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Paramount exec Face mapping can jump-start online

“This is where the advertising community has completely failed at adjusting and adapting and being creative,” Broes said, adding that if they did, “I think we would see a much higher cpm value for video.”

He criticized the advertising sector for being too slow to profit from these sorts of technologies.

Paramount Pictures' Derek Broes says advertisers have failed at being creative with new technologies

(Credit:
Greg Sandoval)

“The technology was very, very compelling,” said Broes, a former Microsoft senior director of global wireless. “Hey, if I can actually star in my own commercials, I’m going to watch them…If you look at a Facebook environment; if my face is in a database there, and I watch a…let’s say a Mountain Dew commercial (about) a rock concert and I’m the lead singer. Let’s say my friends have their heads in the database and they become members of the band. Then it becomes entertaining and it’s no longer a commercial.”

LOS ANGELES–A Paramount Pictures executive added to the chorus of positive reviews for Big Stage’s face-mapping technology during the Digital Hollywood conference on Tuesday.

Derek Broes, Paramount Pictures executive vice president of worldwide business development, was asked during a panel discussion about what interesting new technologies he’s seen.

Broes said he was impressed by Big Stage and the start-up’s system for manipulating digital recreations of a person’s face. The company snaps three photographs of someone’s face and processes the photos on its servers to create a digital model of the face. It can then make the image smile, wink, and change expressions.

Webware’s Rafe Needleman calls it an automatic avatar builder. Broes sees it as a potentially revolutionary tool for advertisers.

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Adobe updates LiveCycle business software

LiveCycle ES Update 1 will be available next month, Adobe said.

The PDF Generator 3D ES component is targeted at the manufacturing industry and allows companies to share two- and three-dimensional models in PDF format. The component works with more than 40 CAD applications, according to Adobe.

Adobe Systems is updating and expanding its LiveCycle software for building business-oriented Web applications.

The company on Tuesday is expected to announce LiveCycle Enterprise Suite Update 1, which adds new content management features along with tools to more quickly build financial services and government applications.

The new release also includes two new components: LiveCycle Content Services ES, and LiveCycle PDF Generator 3D ES.

The Content Services component, developed in conjunction with Alfresco Software, lets companies build a process or application linked to existing enterprise content. For instance, companies can use the tool to create a system for connecting manufacturers to parts suppliers, or for linking hospitals to insurers.

LiveCycle is one of the primary products in Adobe’s enterprise business. The product is designed for applications that involve document exchanges inside and outside of organizations, such as government Web sites that require people to fill out and process claims. It uses Adobe’s PDF and Flex software to create paperless, Web-based applications.

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Report Studios want interoperable DRM

TechCrunch is reporting that Sony Pictures is behind the plan that has the support of most of the top film companies–other than those backed by Walt Disney. A Sony spokesman could not be reached for comment Tuesday evening.

According to Michael Arrington, the plan calls for “a set of policy decisions and a software and services framework that will allow interoperability of various formats and DRM schemes that are currently splintering the market.”

The plan also calls for a neutral party to manage a central registry where users would register their devices. Movies purchased from participating services would then play on devices from participating manufacturers.

Most of the largest motion picture studios are backing a plan that would create interoperability among digital rights management schemes.

OK, while acknowledging I haven’t heard all the details, the plan at this point sounds complicated and it also calls for competitors to cooperate. This is not an easy thing in Hollywood.

I’m always skeptical of any proposition that requires the studios to agree on standards. Hollywood should also learn from the music industry and abandon DRM now. Consumers have already rendered a verdict on DRM: death.

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Yahoo to unseal opposition court papers in shareho

Yahoo investors who are hoping to get a glimpse into the company’s legal brief filed Monday to oppose holding a trial to remove its controversial employee severance plan will have to wait for an hour or so, according to a source familiar with the filing.

Update 10:30 a.m. PDT: Yahoo plans to unseal its court filing Monday.

Yahoo had unsuccessfully sought to keep the shareholder amended complaint under seal. The recently unsealed documents created a firestorm of controversy for the Internet search pioneer. The amended complaint contained e-mails and information from outside compensation consultants Yahoo had hired, who raised questions regarding the breadth of the severance packages that would be awarded to all full-time employees in the event of a change of control of Yahoo should employees depart the company or their duties or responsibilities change.

While the motion to oppose setting a trial date was temporarily filed under seal, Yahoo’s motion to dismiss the shareholder amended lawsuit–also filed Monday–was not, according to the Delaware Chancery Court, where both filings were submitted.

Yahoo’s brief seeks to oppose a motion made in a shareholder lawsuit, which asks the court to hold a trial to invalidate the company’s employees severance plans and to hold the trial before Yahoo’s annual shareholders’ meeting August 1.

Yahoo’s employee severance plan has been called a defacto “poison pill” by the plaintiffs, who allege it was put in place to make Microsoft’s earlier unsolicited buyout efforts more expensive, a claim Yahoo has previously rejected. The Internet company characterized the plan as an employee retention effort.

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Cellulosic ethanol upstart Mascoma fills coffers

Like many clean-tech start-ups, Mascoma is moving from technology development to commercialization, which is very capital-intensive. It has broken ground on demonstration plants that should be operating later this year.

PEHub, citing a regulatory filing, reported Thursday that the Cambridge, Mass.-based company took in $30 million in equity and $20 million in debt.

The financing was led by General Catalyst Partners, and included existing investors Khosla Ventures, Atlas Venture, Flagship Ventures, Kleiner Perkins, Pinnacle Ventures, and VantagePoint Venture Partners.

Mascoma, which makes ethanol from wood chips and agricultural wastes, has raised an additional $50 million, according to a published report.

To get out of the labs and move toward profitability, many new energy and fuel companies need to raise a substantial amounts of money, on the order of $50 million or more, to demonstrate that their products can be made economically.

Spun off from Dartmouth College, Mascoma is among the wave of new companies trying to convert biomass, other than corn, into the liquid fuel ethanol. Its technology uses special enzymes to break down cellulose into sugar before fermentation. Its goal is to condense that two-step conversion into one.

Mascoma has already raised $40 million in venture funding and gotten state grants from Michigan, New York, and Tennessee.

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What it means to be an analyst

Now, the mere presence of such a quote from an analyst who was part of these Pentagon briefings should make it obvious to anyone that no amount of influence can turn every analyst into a puppet. The Times article was hopelessly, breathlessly hysterical over a simple fact of life… a fact that is familiar to everyone who deals with analysts in politics or the private sector.

A wise analyst is aware of these blind spots and simply refrains from offering opinions on them. For example, I doubt the Pentagon gave the analysts in the Times story any statistics on unauthorized corporal punishment of detainees by Guantánamo staff, and I doubt any of the analysts interpreted this lack of data as indicating such contact never happens. (I certainly have no idea whether it happens, so I’m not saying it does or doesn’t.)

Sources– whether in the public or private sectors– have a very limited ability to influence these biases. Their best way to influence an analyst’s opinions is to make sure the analyst is aware of all the facts that are favorable to the source’s position. That’s what the Times says the Pentagon did in this case. For example, in attempting to counteract bad publicity generated by criticism of the Guantánamo facility by Amnesty International:

Analysts also bring in certain biases and preconceived ideas. I have my own, of course. I believe the companies I cover (or work for!) ought to do useful new work, respect the intellectual property of other companies, and deal honestly with its customers, partners, and competitors alike. I approve of technical monopolies– those created when a company is first to develop a technology– and I don’t approve of monopolies created by predatory trade practices. That still leaves room for plenty of hard competition, and I approve of that, too.

(Thanks to my friend Elf Sternberg for bringing the Times story to my attention, although I don’t think the story is anywhere near as significant as Elf does.)

It’s certainly useful for the Times to periodically remind us all of how analysts develop their opinions, but it isn’t so useful to provide a view of the process that is as biased and misleading as this one.

On the flight to Cuba, for much of the day at Guantánamo and on the flight home that night, Pentagon officials briefed the 10 or so analysts on their key messages — how much had been spent improving the facility, the abuse endured by guards, the extensive rights afforded detainees.

And it usually doesn’t even matter what opinions an individual analyst holds. Reporters simply find analysts who will deliver the kinds of opinions they want. This “quote shopping” is inevitable and ubiquitous, and I’m not even going to say it’s wrong; reporters have to have this freedom. But it means that reporters– including David Barstow, who wrote this piece for the Times– are trying to influence their readers the same way this article claims the Pentagon is trying to influence military analysts. Barstow included dozens of quotes in his article to support his position, and only twice did he quote a military analyst defending his objectivity– although I’m pretty sure most would have done so if Barstow had given them the chance.

The New York Times ran an article over the weekend (here) describing efforts by the Pentagon and the Bush Administration to influence the opinions of military analysts, primarily retired military officers, who contribute to coverage of the Iraq War and other topics by newspapers and TV news programs.

The Times article also suggests that it’s inappropriate for analysts to try to help their sources craft their public messages. Given that analysts are paid to have opinions, it should come as no surprise to the Times or anyone else that analysts like to share these opinions with everyone around them– sources as well as reporters. That’s the difference between analysts and reporters, after all; analysts are held to have enough relevant experience to justify having and expressing opinions. Reporters are not.

The analyst business works the same way for all kinds of analysts– military, political, financial, and (as in my case) technology analysts.

There are similar biases among military analysts. For example, some believe Islamic extremism and anti-American terrorism ought to be met with military force. Some believe the US ought to reserve the military option for more immediate or substantial strategic threats. I don’t even know any military analysts, but I can see their biases. Presumably military reporters at the New York Times see them too, and shouldn’t pretend otherwise.

Does the New York Times really believe that this was inappropriate? The article doesn’t attempt to claim that these briefings, or the opinions later voiced by the analysts, were misleading or wrong. Apparently the Times believes it’s damning enough that the analysts accepted the Pentagon’s claims. But I have seen few if any cases of outright deception in my experience with analyst briefings (literally hundreds of them over the years). More commonly, spin is applied by withholding unfavorable facts and by withholding briefings from analysts who hold fixed and unfavorable opinions.

Ultimately it has to be up to the reader to critically evaluate every line of every news story. Readers shouldn’t assume analyst opinions are unbiased any more than they should assume that the facts in the story are complete or truly representative. But facts and opinions usually do have some basis in reality, and a critical reader can usually learn something about the truth of the matter in spite of all the biases that went into the story.

“It was them saying, ‘We need to stick our hands up your back and move your mouth for you.’”

The Times article claimed that the Pentagon’s influence turned these analysts into sock puppets, a claim supported by this quote from Robert S. Bevelacqua– a military analyst himself:

(Credit:
US Department of Defense)

Within any community of analysts, there will be some who can be bought, some who can be brainwashed, and some who can be bamboozled. Any given analyst will have some ability to think clearly and independently; each analyst decides whether to exercise that ability or simply regurgitate the spin offered by his or her sources.

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Apple’s MacBook refresh … not so fresh

The updated models come with new Intel processors, larger hard disks, more main memory, and more graphics memory.

And I need a reason to replace my own MacBook Pro. It’s almost a year and a half old, and I’m getting itchy. C’mon, Apple, surprise me!

Apple's MacBook Pro

(Credit:
Courtesy of Apple)

Apple has often been ahead of the competition. Earlier PowerBook and MacBook models were among the first notebooks to introduce super-thin cases, Gigabit Ethernet, motion sensors, LED backlights, DVI video outputs, FireWire, and other advanced features. Perhaps Apple is looking well beyond the features I’ve listed here, some of which have become almost routine in Windows notebooks.

The new Penryn processor was expected to improve battery life, but I noticed something when I compared the specs for the old MacBook Pro to those of the new model. The new machine’s stated battery life has dropped from six hours to just five. However, Apple now refers to five hours of “wireless productivity,” whereas the old machine didn’t use that qualifier. This suggests to me that Apple is now rating battery life with wireless networking enabled, and may have been doing the measurements with Wi-Fi off on the older machines. If that’s what happened, Apple should explain it; without the explanation, the apparent drop in battery life is disappointing.

Apple refreshed its MacBook and MacBook Pro product lines last week. I was hoping for more significant improvements, but the changes were minimal.

Extreme Edition processors
Support for more than 4GB of DRAM–Mac OS X “Leopard” is a full 64-bit OS and 4GB isn’t really enough any more, especially if you use a virtualization environment such as Parallels Desktop or VMware Fusion to run Windows apps within
Mac OS X
Integrated WWAN–I use an Option ExpressCard 3G adapter for the AT&T network, but I’d rather have this function built in to free up the slot
Blu-ray optical drives–I expected to see this feature last year!
A secondary solid-state hard disk–I suggested this feature in a blog post last June, and now Sony has it in its Vaio TZ92 notebook
Intel HD audio
Nvidia’s GeForce 8800M GTS and GTX graphics chips
Hybrid graphics–the ability to use a discrete graphics chip for high performance or the simpler graphics engine in the chipset for longer battery life; Sony offers this feature too
A fingerprint reader–Apple’s systems are already more secure than most Windows machines, but a fingerprint reader would be a useful complement to existing security measures
Tablet mode–maybe not on all machines, but it’d sure be nice to see a tablet-capable MacBook

Of course, even without these improvements, existing MacBook and MacBook Pro machines are still among the sleekest, fastest, and most capable notebook PCs on the market. But no tech company can afford to stand still, not even Apple.

Well, these machines are just a midlife kicker. The real advance will show up later this year when Apple ships machines based on Intel’s forthcoming Montevina platform, which includes the same Penryn processors but introduces a new family of chipsets code-named Cantiga.

Apple will presumably add other new features along with Montevina. I have no idea what Apple is working on, but we can look at other PC notebooks on the market today to see what technology Apple might consider adopting:

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